I’ve already mentioned it in some comments over at NLS’s site so I might as well come out and say it here.

All polls are showing that the race between Kaine and Kilgore (and that other guy) is more or less a dead heat. But polls are meaningless. What matters is whether or not people turn up to vote the way they say they will.

And the Republican’s won’t.

The Kilgore campaign has done little to excite the conservative base of the party. And despite pleads from clear minds like Norm, the conservatives are just not going to feel the urge to turn out. Despite the long term implications of this race and it’s potential impact in future Virginia elections, from House of Delegates up to Presidential.

Democrats, energized by what they feel is a hijacking of this race by non-issues such as the death penalty (and perhaps feeling a bit of excitement at the idea of a Mark Warner campaign for Vice President), will show up for their man.

It will be close, but not as close as the polls are making it.

Kaine by four.

Oh, and Potts will pull a respectable 2%.

Kaine 46% - Kilgore 44% which is still in the margin of error but, as Norm points out, this is the first time Kaine has led in a Rasmussen poll:

Both men now earn more than 80% of the votes from within their own party. Kaine has a 14% advantage among those not affiliated with either major party.

In six of the last eight Rasmussen Reports election polls in Virginia, Jerry Kilgore has attracted between 44% and 46% of the vote. One he was a point above that range, and once a point below.

In the last four Virginia election polls, Kaine has been in that same range (44% to 46%) every time. However, in the preceding four polls, he was in the 39% to 41% range.

Overall, Kilgore is viewed favorably by 56% of Virginia voters and unfavorably by 38%. For Kaine, the numbers are 62% favorable and 34% unfavorable. These numbers highlight a huge difference between the Virginia election and this year’s contest in New Jersey. In the New Jersey race, neither candidate is viewed favorably by more than 41% of voters.

In the last poll, Kilgore’s favorible rating was 53% while Kaine’s was 56%.

But is this the sign of a trend, Democrats coming out in larger numbers and more supportive of their candidate than Republicans? Or are we just seeing the undecideds making up their minds? Less than two weeks to go, folks.

Oh, and Potts doubled his numbers from 2% to a whopping 4%

As much time as I’ve spent in Plan 9 over the last few months and as many albums as I’ve purchased, I missed this one completely and there’s just no excuse for it.

GAH! And I call myself a fan! Well, I think I know what I’m using this little gift certificate thingy for.

Oh, hey, the whole thing’s available for a listen online here. Great old school country album. Halfway through the first listen and I’m rocked. This is a great album. I’m getting this tomorrow.

Oh, SWEET! Anyone got $1.3 million so I can get me a Curtis P-40E Warhawk? Pretty please?

BP profit jumps to 4.4 bln dlrs in third quarter

British oil giant BP said that net profit rose to 4.41 billion dollars (3.69 billion euros) during the third quarter, as record energy prices offset production damage caused by the recent US hurricanes.

Third quarter net profit, excluding gains from the value of its inventories, increased by 16 percent when compared with the 3.79 billion dollars BP earned during the third quarter of 2004.

GOP to target Big Oil profits

House Republicans, worried about political fallout from the high-profit figures that oil companies are expected to release later this week, will demand that companies pour those profits into refining more oil for the U.S. market in order to lower prices.

But what about the concept that the higher profits are FROM those higher prices? Especially when considering that analysts expect the major corporations to show a nearly 50 percent increase in profits from the same period in 2004 (same article). I seriously doubt that gas consumption leapt 50% or even 16% to account for these increased profits. Mayhaps these price increases weren’t all “necessary”.

2:30pm UPDATE: ConocoPhillips profit beats forecasts

ConocoPhillips, the No. 3 U.S. oil company, on Wednesday reported quarterly profit surged 89 percent, surpassing Wall Street forecasts, driven by record oil prices and sharply higher refining margins.

…

Profit at its refining and marketing operations rose to $1.39 billion from $708 million a year earlier, but were hit by outages at three Gulf Coast refineries.

The Jolly Green Giant is dead. Well, his voice is.

One Star reviews of some of Time’s 100 best novels. One of my faves:

Lord of the Flies (1955)
Author: William Golding
“I am obsessed with Survivor, so I thought it would be fun. WRONG!!! It is incredibly boring and disgusting. I was very much disturbed when I found young children killing each other. I think that anyone with a conscience would agree with me.”

Survivor… Lord of the Flies… Uh huh.

Why do we believe in God? Evolution!

Goldfish bowls banned in Rome. Because they’re cruel.

Does your church worship Baal? Warning, buildings labled as phalic symbols follows.

Many students of prophecy understand the USA to be the “lamb horned beast” of Revelation. And they also understand the Vatican to be “the beast” of Revelation as well. Now do you understand why they BOTH sport the Phallic symbol of Baal worship with such graphic confidence?

Who knew?

Dead guy gets a ticket for being illegally parked.

Make your own rock band.

Episode IV

Episode V

Great stuff.

Google Base looks to be a sorta online database Google’s starting soon. Interesting…

Rosa Parks, whose act of civil disobedience in 1955 inspired the modern civil rights movement, died Monday in Detroit, Michigan. She was 92.

Chad over at VAConservative has some interesting numbers to share:

Lieutenant Governor:
Republican Bill Bolling-41
Democrat Leslie Byrne-37

Attorney General:
Republican Bob McDonnell-42
Democrat Creigh Deeds-34

Republican sweep? Mason-Dixon numbers are due out later tonight, we’ll see how these measure up…

They really need to have this in a different month than Nanowrimo so I can try and do both.

Kilgore 48% - Kaine 46% with Potts pulling a whopping 2%.

But still in the margin of error:

Republican Jerry W. Kilgore and Democrat Timothy M. Kaine remain about even in the latest Times-Dispatch Poll, although Kilgore leads by a statistically insignificant 2 percentage points.

Kilgore is pulling 44 percent to 42 percent for Kaine.

Because Kilgore’s advantage is within the margin of the error — 4 percentage points in either direction — the contest with Kaine is close.

Sorry, that last line makes me laugh. As if being up by only 2 percentage points didn’t say the race was close to begin with.

Chad over at VAConservative points out:

There is some very good news for Kilgore in this poll. First of all, Tim Kaine’s negative ratings have doubled, which is an indication that the death penalty ads have worked. Another key point is this: Kaine got no bounce whatsoever from having Mark Warner on TV and by his side. None. It’s an indication that people aren’t associating Kaine with Warner because Kaine is so much more liberal than Mark Warner.

So while the death penalty issue may have increased Kaine’s negative numbers, have they equated to any sort of bounce for Kilgore? Doesn’t look that way, especially considering the previous MD poll had Kilgore 41/Kaine 40, Kilgore pulling 3 more points to Kaine’s 2. Is it a gain? Sure.

Norm focuses on an interesting point in the article:

In a sign that Kilgore may face an anti-GOP headwind, The Times-Dispatch Poll — the third of four this campaign — indicates that Republicans aren’t as excited about him as Democrats are about Kaine.

Among Democrats, 84 percent are supporting Kaine. Of voters identifying themselves as Republicans, 79 percent favor Kilgore.

Kilgore, who presses law-and-order themes that resonate with GOP voters, may have decided to run the disputed death-penalty spots in hopes of bringing home Republicans.

But is that really working? How many Republicans are going to turn out because of the death penalty, as opposed to how many Democrats are getting riled up over what they feel is either a non-issue or just wrong?

Kilgore must have something in house saying the death penalty is working because it looks like he’s going to ride this to the end. Too bad about those other issues.

Oh, Russ Potts pulled 5%.

CNN.com has decided to run a poll asking whether Catholic priests should be allowed to marry. 86% say sure, why not. Grumble…

I’ve just never been a big fan of internet “polling” like this. It breaks an issue down so much that it becomes almost as meaningless as its results.

The poll is the result of a CNN article yesterday about Catholic bishops reaffirming the Church’s stance on celibate priests:

The proposals, meant for the pope to consider in a future document on the Eucharist, also dealt with whether Communion should be denied to Catholic politicians who support laws that contradict church teaching, such as the right to abortion, as well as the plight of Catholics who divorce and remarry without getting an annulment.

The estimated 250 bishops who gathered for the three-week Synod of Bishops voted behind closed doors on the recommendations, which disappointed some church reform groups by hewing closely to church teaching. The synod, which began October 2, formally ends Sunday with a Mass celebrated by Benedict.

Oh, I’m sorry, you’re upset because the Catholic Church decided to side with teaching? The faith does not exist to be dictated by the flock, people.

Says the bad Catholic.