J’s Gubernatorial Call
I’ve already mentioned it in some comments over at NLS’s site so I might as well come out and say it here.
All polls are showing that the race between Kaine and Kilgore (and that other guy) is more or less a dead heat. But polls are meaningless. What matters is whether or not people turn up to vote the way they say they will.
And the Republican’s won’t.
The Kilgore campaign has done little to excite the conservative base of the party. And despite pleads from clear minds like Norm, the conservatives are just not going to feel the urge to turn out. Despite the long term implications of this race and it’s potential impact in future Virginia elections, from House of Delegates up to Presidential.
Democrats, energized by what they feel is a hijacking of this race by non-issues such as the death penalty (and perhaps feeling a bit of excitement at the idea of a Mark Warner campaign for Vice President), will show up for their man.
It will be close, but not as close as the polls are making it.
Kaine by four.
Oh, and Potts will pull a respectable 2%.
October 31st, 2005 at 9:47 pm
Methinks you overestimate the Dems passion for their candidate. They don’t like Kaine.
And Kaine has no organization on the ground to speak of. He will have trouble getting his voters to the polls.
Kilgore, on the other hand, has a great program in place. If it works like it’s supposed to, he’ll win in a walk. If the program doesn’t work, yes, he might be in trouble.
November 1st, 2005 at 10:18 am
If it works, though I doubt it’ll be “in a walk”. But I agree in that Kaine’s organization is next to nil. If he win’s he’ll have stumbled into it because of the lack of Republican turn out. That’s where this race stands right now, GOTV.
November 1st, 2005 at 8:37 pm
A great program? They ran once a week phone banks in most areas up until just a few weeks ago. Their people have spent way way more time putting up signs on roads (look! That patch of public median supports Kilgore! I’ve always trusted that median!) than they have making calls.