National Journal has polled insiders about their thoughts on the impact of blogs on the upcoming midterm elections. Republicans by and large believe they will have no impact (70%) with the rest evenly split on whether it will help Republicans or Democrats more. Democrats, on the other hand, swing the opposite way, with 69% thinking blogs will help Democrats and the rest saying no impact. Some interesting quotes as well.
I think what you’re seeing is the “echo chamber’s” impact with the insiders. Blogs are majority Liberal, perhaps with as large as a 2:1 split. So Democrats view it as their territory and their territory alone, they will drown out any attempts by the GOP to enter the fray. Insiders see these netroots efforts and think in dollar signs but what they fail to realize is that a good portion of these Liberal sites are not only caught up in the “echo chamber” of other sites but are not all as effective as the Dean campaign made them out to be two years ago, especially given the large number of bloggers hiding behind pseudonyms.
Republicans, on the other hand, look at the “success” of the Dean campaign’s netroots efforts and laugh. If they do think it’ll have an impact, they either fear that Dems have gotten their act together in the last two years or believe Republicans can make gains in a predominantly Liberal medium. Overall, blogs are meaningless in their eyes.
My thoughts? Blogs can potentially be a boon for both parties, but only in as much as how much the MSM pays attention to what is being said. For example, the “anti-Semetic” cartoon in the Webb/Miller primary. Blogs started that conversation and eventually the MSM caught onto it. Perhaps with a helpful push from the Miller camp, but the blogs formed the foundation of the story.
Nationally, Dems have a definate headstart. But localities may see it differently. Virginia has its very own netroots Conservative network ready to work for Allen and counter the Dem efforts.
Here or there, though, Blogs alone will not sway voters, but they may sway the MSM and that is where its greatest impact will be felt.