Is The Long Tail Flat?
by Jason Kenney
The “Long Tail” theory may be bunk:
It’s true that we’re now buying more obscure movies and music than ever before. But we’re merely nibbling on these niches, Elberse reports, while we continue to gorge on a small selection of hits. In 2007, 24 percent of the nearly 4 million digital songs available for sale through stores like iTunes sold only one copy each, and 91 percent of available tracks sold fewer than 100 copies each. The story is the same for the movie business, where, between 2000 and 2005, the number of titles that were purchased only a few times “almost quadrupled.” The Internet offers us a buffet of everything—and yet we’re mainly settling for the likes of The Love Guru and You Don’t Mess With the Zohan.
Instead of the long tail being bunk, it seems that in order for the long tail to work one must access the big head, whether that be a large company providing the access (Amazon) or a large outlet shining light (New York Times). The Long Tail needs a Tipping Point to work.
That’s not to say the long tail should be ignored, but I think it’s a fallacy to rely upon ONLY the long tail, as Ron Paul experienced and as Barack Obama might be realizing very shortly…
UPDATE: As Shaun also notes, “it’s all about message control.”
Comments
Never heard of the ‘Long Tail’ and just followed the link for definitions so I might be a bit off but…
Some of these songs or movies that are obscure are only getting one or two ’sells’ a day while ‘The Love Guru” might be at the top of the heap… Perhaps, for a bit. But I think the ‘Guru’ may fall off a cliff and the obscure will be the little train that could and continue their small but constant sales.
How does an independent bookstore survive across the street from a Barnes & Noble. I undercut them on somethings and they undercut me on others (pricewise). The have an huge number of books I have 29k. But I’ve got obscure things they don’t (romance, African American, signed copies, and some out of print). I steal a couple of new customers from them everyday and that’s all it takes. I don’t rely on the big blow out of volume.
As far as Ron Paul…. He fell off the cliff as people really got to know him. It’s cute to think that the South should have been allowed to succeed but what would have been the ramifications of two major nations at odds with each other on this continent? The little cat fights sparked by an inbred aristocrat in the Balkans would be nothing compared to a few ‘World Wars’ fought from ’sea to shining sea’….
Perhaps the long tail works in the long run, but people need to hear of things first before they are popular. And I think businesses are slow to adopt the long tail because if they can sell a few of those big head items they’d make a lot more money with a lot less effort then having to sell a larger variety to the long tail. Thing is, big head requires a greater investment so bigger risk where if one can capture that long tail they can usually do it on the cheap (compare, say, Gigli to My Big Fat Greek Wedding).
Most long tail successes are by accident, though. I don’t think anyone invoved in Greek Wedding imagined it’d do as well as it did, nor would anyone involved in the Ron Paul campaign a year ago have expected the money they saw come in. But in both cases, they relied upon a certain amount of hype at some point to push them over the top - the influentials required for a tipping point, which then puts it in the large head.
A lot of gray area here.
All that said, there is a place for those who carry less of more. Stores like yours have been around a while and will always be around because they can offer things that won’t be found at other stores. Nor will you be blowing big money on some things you just know they can do better across the street.
Ron Paul never really had a chance. He excited a fringe that was willing to throw a bit of money at him but couldn’t turn out the votes. In fact, that same fringe really hurt his chances at gaining the respect and backing (verbally and monetarily) from folks in the big head that really would have put him over the top. He was able to harness it in the short term, but lack of big name commitment ended things before they got started. Whether that was because of his supporters, his message or what is anyone’s guess.
[...] week I posted my brief thoughts on a Slate article that said the Long Tail might be all for [...]