Patrick Ruffini and Justin Hart share their thoughts on Tuesday’s elections in Virginia and what it says about the Virginia GOP.
From Ruffini’s post:
Instead of applying blunt force on the immigration issue in a diverse community, you zero in on the illegal immigration-related quality of life concerns that 90% of the electorate can identify with, like the scourge of MS-13 gang violence in the region. Were I running in Northern Virginia, I wouldn’t mention the words “illegal immigration.” I would talk exclusively about MS-13, and about working with ICE to deport every violent criminal in the area illegally. This is the fatal mistake that ex-prosecutor Jerry Kilgore made in 2005 — and the GOP candidates this time around didn’t do much better.
Likewise, running a 1988-style campaign on “taxes” is too vague and diffuse. Zero in on the real source of taxpayer ire: rising property tax assessments. And tie it to competence. The housing boom was a veritable revenue bonanza for local governments, with double digit revenue growth year on year. At the state level, Mark Warner raised taxes. And even with state and local governments drowning in revenue, they still can’t build roads, they still can’t educate kids, they still can’t get things done. And now Tim Kaine and the Democrats want even more. Tim Kaine and the Democrats. Incompetent. Unaccountable. Arrogant.
Finally, traffic is the new wedge issue — on both sides. In the 2002 tax increase referendum, we used environmental concerns (or they used us) to wedge advocates of higher taxes from liberal inner suburbanites who ride Metro. In 2005, the Democrats used long commutes to pry away out outer suburbanites who would gladly pay more taxes for an extra half-hour with their families. We need to highlight the inherent fissures within the Democratic coalition again. And at a minimum, hold Democrats accountable for their promises on traffic and road-building. The RPV needs to launch a “Tim Kaine Commute-o-Meter” tallying the rise in the total commute for Northern Virginia drivers since Kaine took office. And our message could look something like this: Democrats like _____ are in the pocket of extreme, pro-regulatory special interests. They won’t build the roads we need to solve the traffic crisis.
Justin wrote about “the purple-ing” of Loudon County and gave the following thoughts:
No meticulous local GOTV. The local campaign managers had a targeted list of GOP activists and supporters but basically “hoped” they would come out to vote. There were plenty of poll boosters giving out sample ballots and literature but there were no poll watchers to call back the people who had and had not voted. (Note: the Dems didn’t do this either… but it was there for the taking).
Robo calls for GOTV are ineffective. Basically, Richmond set up a massive auto-call to remind people to vote on Monday. No call on Tuesday and no one called in person.
Mailers crafted in Richmond will not work. While 2nd amendment issues were prominent in one race in Fairfax they had no bearing on the race out here. The RPV sent out 2 big glossies touting NRA endorsements and gun rights… a non issue for the new Suburban-ites in Loudoun.
Lack of coordination across local candidates on the GOP side. Small entrenched factions for supervisor and other offices worked together ignoring other new GOP candidates trying to take a stand.
No bussing of support for the GOP.The Dems got the local unions to ship a gambit of people into town and literally lather the town in Dem candidate sinage. Of couse sinage isn’t everything but its one thing we didn’t do.
Locally or statewide, I think it comes down to what a commenter to Ruffini’s post said, organization and coordination:
Message is not a problem, it’s that there was no message until four weeks before election day. The Republican Party has no single avenue of leadership: each campaign keeps its own workings close, but then you have three organizations and their various splits all trying to do their own operations, never mind local committees and the like. Dems have a better top down organization right now and whether this will serve as a wake-up call that the Republicans need to get their act together or just allow them to continue business as usual is something they’re going to have to decide very quick.
The Virginia Republican Party has always been fractured along personal and local lines. Whether it’s personal or local egos, it’s hard to convey a single, strong message to show what Republicans as a whole stand for when everyone doesn’t want to play ball together. It’s not a matter of finding issues that speak to the people, it’s a matter of sticking to them, because by and large Virginians are still interested in candidates that promote conservative issues.
D.J. MacGwire has been preaching this for two days now because it needs to be said:
Myth: Economic conservatism was rejected in Virginia.
Fact: Where it was on the ballot, economic conservatism was embraced in Virginia. My earlier post on this has the details, but suffice to say, Republicans who stood against higher taxes (including those endorsed by their own leadership) actually did better in 2007 than in 2005. This was especially true in northern Virginia, the GOP’s supposed electoral desert. Even in the two Hampton Roads Senate seats that the GOP lost, the anti-tax conservative (Tricia Stall) came closer to victory than the pro-tax incumbent (Nick Rerras).
These elections were close. Very close. This was far from the referrendum that Democrats had been looking for. To cry that this is the end of a red Virginia is to forget that Republican have only controlled the legislature for the last eight years. That Republicans still control the House and are just barely in the minority in the Senate doesn’t mean the GOPs days are numbered. In fact, Republican representation in the House and Senate may prove more conservative now than ever before.
2007 showed Republican candidates campaigning on the defensive while Democrats failed to promote any real ideas for change, they simply hammered on perceived faults to which the Republicans had no response. Leadership needs to come together and work together to ensure that the same values and ideas that got them elected are properly represented in the House and Senate. Those same values and ideas are the platform that candidates can use to get elected to office.
For more, check out the ODBA and, in particular, Virginia Virtucon. Jim Riley has his thoughts on Party Buildingand candidate recruitment and Rittinger has a potential bad scenario that could teach the GOP some lessons.
