A new paper in Psychological Science (.htm) reports a failure to replicate Study 2 of Ariely and Wertenbroch’s influential article entitled, “Procrastination, Deadlines, and Performance: Self-Control by Precommitment.” The original study, published in Psychological Science in 2002 (.htm), found that people performed better on a set of tasks when each task had its own externally imposed deadline than when people set their own deadlines or faced a single last-day deadline for all tasks. The paper has had a lasting influence. It has been assigned reading in many economics and psychology courses, and has more than 2,100 citations on Google Scholar.
Because this paper has been so influential, it is worthwhile to take a close look at the original study to try to understand why it did not replicate. We did that. This post – and the next one – is about what we found.
Month: August 2026
Yikes
In my opinion, we’re not freaking out nearly enough about AI-enabled bioterror. It’s absolutely catastrophic, frighteningly plausible, and receives very little attention. Compared to the risk of a civilization-ending pandemic, cyberattacks are a pinprick, and misinformation is a joke.
So let’s talk about why a scenario like the one I described is a lot more plausible than many people think.
— Read on www.noahpinion.blog/p/heres-how-were-all-going-to-die
#1 for #2s globally
After trade negotiations broke down between the two countries last weekend, Mark Carney, the Canadian prime minister, vowed to match US tariffs “dollar for dollar” and unveiled a list of nearly 900 American goods that will face 25% to 50% tariffs starting on 8 September.
Paper products are among the hardest-hit sectors, with Canada threatening to put tariffs of between 25% and 50% on “toilet paper or face tissue stock” from 8 September in retaliation for a 50% hike from Washington DC.
Though American toilet paper and tissues are often made domestically, they heavily rely on lumber-rich Canada for raw materials. Procter & Gamble, the owner of Charmin toilet paper, said last year that it would have to increase prices amid tariffs that were in place at the time.
The US imported $328m worth of toilet paper from Canada in 2024, according to the World Bank, making it by far the largest exporter of the product to the US. Retailers including Costco source much of their paper products from the country.
The US accounts for more than 20% of global tissue consumption despite having only 4% of the world’s population. The average American uses 141 rolls of toilet paper per year, making them No 1 for No 2s globally, just ahead of Germans, each using an average of 134 rolls annually.
Economic Growth Makes Graceland Less Impressive | The Daily Economy
The real “capitalist achievement,” however, isn’t Graceland. It’s the fact that compared to the stuff of the average person’s day-to-day life in 2023, Graceland just isn’t that impressive.
— Read on thedailyeconomy.org/article/economic-growth-makes-graceland-less-impressive/
The Intellectual Circle Jerk
Reading something already confirms your existing worldview, highlights every piece of information in precisely the right format to re-confirm your existing identity, and takes no effort or discomfort, no revision for any mental model. You finish whatever book, whatever blog post, feeling a good deal smarter than you were when you started (because look! There was content, and now it has been consumed!) but nothing has actually happened.
You’re the same person.
You had no reason to change.
Challenging yourself is incredibly uncomfortable – nobody expects training for and running a marathon to leave you feeling as refreshed and relaxed as a hot bath with a glass of Prosecco. Challenging yourself mentally is no different. You have to hold competing thoughts in your head and let them duke and duel it out, and moderate them for all your life’s worth. Most folks aren’t willing to do that.
Which makes the market for comforting, conforming ideas far more lucrative than the market for ideas with a fighting spirit.
Pre-consent tracking
Nearly one in three EU websites sets analytics cookies before consent. Nearly one in five sets marketing cookies. The legal position on these is unambiguous: the EDPB has repeatedly confirmed that analytics and marketing cookies require consent under Article 5(3) ePrivacy. The CJEU’s Planet49 ruling made clear that consent must be an active, affirmative act — and it cannot be affirmative if it has not happened yet.
The practical implication is that by the time a visitor sees a cookie banner and considers whether to accept or reject, their browser has already been fingerprinted, their visit has already been logged by analytics platforms, and in many cases their browsing profile has already been updated by advertising networks. The consent choice, when it arrives, is partially retroactive — and retroactive consent is not consent at all.
We Scanned 97,000 EU Websites for GDPR Compliance. Here’s What We Found. – GDPR Privacy Monitor
“Hell is Other People”
What makes another person’s gaze so powerful? According to Sartre, we exist in two radically different ways.
In our own minds, we are a “Subject.” We are a limitless current of intentions, possibilities, memories, and dreams. We are not a fixed thing; we are a constant process of becoming. When you are alone, you experience this freedom most purely. You are the author, director, and star of your own reality.
The moment another person looks at you, however, you are ripped from that role. Under their Gaze, you are instantly transformed into an “Object.” You become a thing in their world, defined by external properties they assign to you: “tall,” “serious,” “well-dressed,” “nervous.” Your infinite inner world collapses into a finite, external label. And the most terrifying part? You have no control over what that label is.
The Written Word Is Not Your Work Product – The Big Picture
The greatest value in writing (to me at least) is not necessarily this finished product, but rather, the process the author goes through to create that work. Putting a word down on paper or pixels forces a coherence and clarity that is typically unavailable until the writing is done. Perhaps the best observation on this predates AI by decades and comes from former Librarian of Congress Daniel Boorstin, who said, “I write to figure out what I think…”1
The written word is the most visible work product, but it is not the most valuable part of writing – the process is…
— Read on ritholtz.com/2026/08/the-written-word-is-not-your-work-product/
John O’Neill
O’Neill oversaw many sensitive operations during his time in New York, including deterring suspected plots ahead of the 2000 ball drop in Times Square. He was active in the New York Joint Terrorism Task Force and was in attendance when the task force marked its 20th anniversary atop the North Tower at Windows on the World in September 2000.
But after being passed over for promotions, and amid internal tensions at the bureau, O’Neill retired from the FBI on August 22, 2001. The next day he started a new job—chief of security at the World Trade Center. He was recruited to the role by New York–based security firm Kroll Associates, which had advised that security at the towers be revamped after the 1993 truck bombing.
In late August, just days before the attacks, O’Neill spoke with a friend, ABC News producer Chris Isham, about his new World Trade Center security job and the threats posed by terrorists to New York. Isham remembered jokingly telling O’Neill that “at least they’re not going to bomb it again,” to which O’Neill replied: “They’ll probably try to finish the job.”
Just two weeks into his new job, O’Neill was in his office on the 34th floor of the South Tower when a plane struck the North Tower.
Richmond restaurant hit with $60,000 erroneous water bill auto-draft – Axios Richmond
McNamara, who owns and operates the multi-use restaurant, event space and rooftop in Scott’s Addition, received a $58,486.76 water bill last week, according to records reviewed by Axios.
Her typical monthly water bill for the 2816 W. Broad St. space is roughly $1,500.
Most of the increase appeared to be connected to the building’s fireline meter, which serves the fire sprinkler system. The bill showed usage jumping from zero to 9,989.83 CCF for July — and a line item cost of over $55,000.
McNamara says DPU officials told her Wednesday that the spike stemmed from a meter-reading issue that the department should have caught.
— Read on www.axios.com/local/richmond/2026/08/19/richmond-dpu-water-bill-autopay-harrys-hofheimer